Economic & Employment Trends in South Africa – Nov 2023 Report

•There have been large differences in GDP growth across provinces, especially in
per capita terms The provinces with the fastest economic growth since 2013 were
Western Cape, Kwa Zulu Natal, and Gauteng at only 1 1 per year, on average
•Over the last 10 years, the profile of the unemployed has shifted more towards
older cohorts, longer term unemployment, and higher levels of education
•Household disposable income remains under pressure due to increased interest
•Main budget revenue estimates in the MTBPS are significantly lower than the
February budget estimates, mainly due to downward revisions to tax revenue
These reduced revenue estimates have negatively impacted the primary budget
•Inward direct investment in South Africa has had competitive returns, while
outward direct investments have had lower returns
•South African exports to the United States have increased substantially since the
pandemic A significant portion of this growth was driven by products that benefit
from the AGOA agreement The share of the value of products under the AGOA
agreement of total exports to the United states doubled between 2020 and 2022.

•South Africa’s productivity has declined dramatically since 2010 At industry level,
the only exception is the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry Since
productivity is a key determinant of a country’s per capita income over the long
term, South Africa’s poor productivity performance over recent history is very
•After declining since 2010 Transnet’s wagon turnaround times have risen since
2019 but the operational efficiency of port cranes has recently declined Moreover,
rail freight volumes have fallen below 2008 levels, while port container volumes
have only risen slightly over the last 14 years
•The Census 2022 results show that South Africa’s population growth is
accelerating Between 2011 and 2022 the population grew at a rate of 1 8 while
the rate between 2001 and 2011 was 1 4 KwaZulu Natal, Limpopo, Mpumalanga,
and the Western Cape had increases in their share of the South African population,
while Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng, and the North West saw marginal
declines over the last decade
•There has been an upward trend in households residing in formal dwellings, and
household access to piped water and electricity is improving Although access to
basic services has improved, municipal underspending on repairs and maintenance
of water and electricity infrastructure impedes the provision of basic services

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